Deceived by chance: The Secret Function of Chance in Markets and Life.
商品資訊
商品簡介
We all fall victim to randomness often, which causes us to overestimate the influence of luck and chance on our lives. When uncertainty and randomness are required, words like "skills" and "determinism" are used. This contrast is most evident in the stock market, where the term "competent investor" is typically replaced by "fortunate idiot."
Without specific skills, one cannot succeed in various professions: Without knowing what they are doing, it is improbable that a plumber or dentist will have a successful career.
Unfortunately, because financial markets are inherently random, novice investors can have successful track records, much like millions of monkeys tapping away on typewriters for a long enough period can eventually produce Shakespeare. It's likely that some of them will.
For illustration purposes, consider a cohort of 10,000 investors who, on average, have a 45% chance of being profitable each year. In other words, investing based on the outcome of a coin toss would be preferable.
Nevertheless, despite their lack of talent, we may anticipate that over 200 of them will have been lucrative every year after five years based solely on probability. They would have a spotless record and take pride in compliments for their extraordinary abilities.
Naturally, the unpredictability that keeps these "acute successful randomness idiots" alive will work against them in the long run. Wall Street has witnessed several traders lose everything in one disastrous quarter after years of success.
Their fleeting success was frequently the result of pure luck-being in the right location at the right moment.
We frequently confuse talent and determinism with luck and unpredictability.
您曾經瀏覽過的商品
購物須知
外文書商品之書封，為出版社提供之樣本。實際出貨商品，以出版社所提供之現有版本為主。部份書籍，因出版社供應狀況特殊，匯率將依實際狀況做調整。
無庫存之商品，在您完成訂單程序之後，將以空運的方式為你下單調貨。為了縮短等待的時間，建議您將外文書與其他商品分開下單，以獲得最快的取貨速度，平均調貨時間為1~2個月。
為了保護您的權益，「三民網路書店」提供會員七日商品鑑賞期(收到商品為起始日)。
若要辦理退貨，請在商品鑑賞期內寄回，且商品必須是全新狀態與完整包裝(商品、附件、發票、隨貨贈品等)否則恕不接受退貨。