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Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the best books of 2011A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 TitleOne of The Economist’s 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Steet Journal

From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake comes Noise, a groundbreaking exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.​Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients -- or that two judges in the same courthouse give different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different food inspectors give different ratings to indistinguishable restaurants -- or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to be handling the particular complaint. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same inspector, or the same company official makes different decisions, depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.In Noise, D

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones―"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients―or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants―or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

全球重量級作者一致推薦！ 如果一年只能讀一本書，你絕對不能錯過《快思慢想》！ 慢慢讀，反覆讀，跟著他踏上美妙的心智探索之旅。 當代最偉大的心理學家、諾貝爾經濟學?得主──康納曼灌注五十餘年研究功力， 推出人類社會思想史上，第一本全面深度剖析大腦思考運作的「思考聖經」。 不僅可能改變你的思維方式，甚至改變你的工作、生活與人生。 Amazon、《紐約時報》、《華爾街日報》、《經濟學人》年度選書 認知科學權威洪蘭教授「六親不認、迫不及待想把它譯完，介紹給讀者看」、 中央研究院曾志朗院士專文推薦！ 英文版上市一年，至今仍穩居Amazon認知心理類Top 1、 決策類Top 3、企業管理類Top 7、銷售總榜Top 100 《黑天鵝效應》作者塔雷伯大力推崇──《快思慢想》是人類社會思想史上的里程碑，媲美亞當斯密的《國富論》和佛洛依德的《夢的解析》。包括《蘋果橘子經濟學》、《為什麼你看不見大猩猩》、《推力》、《別讓科技統治你》、《大腦決策手冊》、《快樂為什麼不幸福》、《語言本能》 「快思」與「慢想」是我們腦中的兩位主角。它們大部分時候是朋友，有時是敵人，更常一起並肩打仗！ 我們何時要相信直覺？何時要對抗直覺與偏見，召喚所有理性出來打仗？我們總以為能駕馭自己的思考，事實上，人們的行為常常受到未知因素所影響。我們對思考的機制充滿假設與誤解，又很依賴直覺的感知和記憶，常常做出因個人偏見導致的錯誤決策。 如果你希望自己更聰明、更冷靜，就要學會掌握「快思」與「慢想」的遊戲規則。 康納曼介紹了很多有趣的經典行為實驗，披露思考的捷徑、替代、偏好、框架、錨點等效應。不僅讓我們對大腦的複雜與非理性恍然大悟，也指出我們在什麼情況下該相信靈光乍現，什麼時候該三思而行，該運用哪些技巧來避免常常使我們陷入麻煩的思考偏誤，以及如何在商場、職場和個人生活中做出更好的選擇。 閱讀本書就像是一趟心智突破之旅，康納曼有如一位稱職的導遊，沿途為我們解說思考到底是怎麼一回事，系統1（直覺式思考）和系統2（邏輯式思考）這兩個主角在各種心理劇碼中如何搭配分工。 「這是快思的系統1，它很情緒化，依賴直覺，見多識廣又很會聯想，擅長編故事，系統1能迅速對眼前的情況做出反應。但它很容易上當，以為親眼所見就是事情的全貌，任由損失厭惡和樂觀偏見之類的錯覺引導我們做出錯誤的選擇。」 「這是慢想的系統二，它動作比較慢、擅長邏輯分析，系統

Daniel Kahneman, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his seminal work in psychology that challenged the rational model of judgment and decision making, is one of our most important

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony,

From the bestselling author ofThinking, Fast and Slow,the co-author ofNudge,and the author ofYou Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake!comesNoise, a groundbreaking exploration of why people make bad ju

Thinking, Fast and Slow 快思慢想Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the best books of 2011A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 TitleOne of The Economist’s 2011 Books of the YearOne of The Wall Steet Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011Winner of the 2011 Los Angeles Times Book Prize for Current InterestIn the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behavior. The impact of loss aversion and overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the challenges of properly framing risks at work and at home, the

This is not just another happiness book. In Happiness by Design, happiness and behavior expert Paul Dolan combines the latest insights from economics and psychology to illustrate that in order to be h

The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have infl

Bold and original.” Daniel Kahneman, PhD, bestselling author of Thinking Fast and SlowThere are a slew of books on the market dictating programs for achieving happiness, butHappiness by Design is the

The Sunday Times bestseller 'A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding' Sunday Times Wherever there is human judgement, there is noise. 'Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade.A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece' Angela Duckworth, author of Grit 'An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight' Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think. Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes.Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monda

The Sunday Times bestseller 'A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding' Sunday Times Wherever there is human judgement, there is noise. 'Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade.A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece' Angela Duckworth, author of Grit 'An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight' Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think. Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes.Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monda

THE INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER 'A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding' SUNDAY TIMES 'Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice.A masterpiece' Angela Duckworth, author of Grit 'An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight' Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think. We like to think we make decisions based on good reasoning - and that our doctors, judges, politicians, economic forecasters and employers do too. In this groundbreaking book, three world-leading behavioural scientists come together to assess the last great fault in our collective decision-making: noise.We all make bad judgements more than we think. Noise shows us what we can do

The Sunday Times bestseller'A monumental, gripping book ... Outstanding' Sunday TimesWherever there is human judgement, there is noise.'Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice.A masterpiece'Angela Duckworth, author of Grit'An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight'Steven Levitt, co-author of FreakonomicsFrom the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think. Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients - or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rath

The nature of well-being is one of the most enduring and elusive subjects of human inquiry. Well-Being draws upon the latest scientific research to transform our understanding of this ancient question