Leading Indicators

The Leading Indicators was widely and well received as a much needed corrective to the outdated, outmoded economic figures we are accustomed. Every day, we are bombarded with numbers that tell us how

Tom Perrotta meets David Brooks in a powerful modern parable about one American family's fall from grace during the recession Margo and Tom Helot have the perfect life. He works in finance; she's an

"For the past three decades, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has issued a national agenda aimed at improving the health of all Americans over each 10-year span. Under each of these H

Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

A history and critical assessment of leading indicators reveals their indelible impact on the economy, public policy and other critical decisions, discussing their shortcomings while making suggestion

Chapters in this book are written by leading geneticists, molecular biologists and other specialists on relevant topics on genetic erosion and conservation genetic diversity in plants. The two volumes

Indicators of child and youth well-being are indispensable tools for improving the lives of children. In this book, the nation’s leading development researchers review the recent progress made in the

The cryosphere comprises all the frozen water and soil on the surface of the Earth. Mass Balance of the Cryosphere focuses on two key components of this environment: land ice (in the form of ice sheets, caps and glaciers) and sea ice. These components have been identified as important indicators of both short and long term climate change. Early chapters cover the theory behind field-based and satellite observations, and modelling of mass balance, providing a thorough grounding in all the concepts and issues presented later in the book. Later chapters review our current understanding of the present and predicted future mass balance of the cryosphere. This is an important reference for all scientists working in the fields of climate change, environmental sciences and glaciology. It is written by leading authors in the field, and is fully integrated to provide a coherent, cross-referenced and consistent exposition on the subject.

世界衛生組織（WHO）提出健康職場管理是指「一個健康職場必須是員工與雇主共同努力，按照持續改善的過程以保護和促進工作者的健康、安全與幸福」。這些因素並非彼此獨立，必須藉由評估預防控制職場危害的先導指標（Leading indicators）來發展健康職場管理策略，並透過成效指標（Lagging indicators）評估績效，達到健康職場的理想。本研究設計採質量並重方式，利用文獻蒐集、專家會議、訪

In the decades following the globalization of the world economy, trafficking, forced labor and modern slavery have emerged as significant global problems. States negotiated the Palermo Protocol in 2000 under which they agreed to criminalize trafficking, primarily understood as an issue of serious organized crime. Sixteen years later, leading academics, activists and policy makers from international organizations come together in this edited volume and adopt an inter-disciplinary, multi-stakeholder approach to revisit trafficking through the lens of labor migration and extreme exploitation and, in the process, rethink the law and governance of trafficking. This volume considers many key factors, including the evolving international law on trafficking, the relationship between trafficking, slavery, indenture and domestic migration law and policy as well as newly emergent techniques of governance, including indicators, all with a view to furthering prospects for lasting economic justice i

This Handbook brings together foundational and leading-edge research exploring dimensions of improving quality of life in communities of place. Beginning with social indicators, other assessment techn

Changes in the shape of the yield curve have traditionally been one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a likely change in economic outlook. However, the recent financial crises have created a challenge to the management of monetary policy, demanding a revision in the way that policymakers model expected changes in the economy. This volume brings together central bank economists and leading academic monetary economists to propose new methods for modelling the behaviour of interest rates. Topics covered include: the analysis and extraction of expectations of future monetary policy and inflation; the analysis of the short-term dynamics of money market interest rates; the reliability of existing models in periods of extreme market volatility and how to adjust them accordingly; and the role of government debt and deficits in affecting sovereign bond yields and spreads. This book will interest financial researchers and practitioners as well as academic and central bank economists.

Why are some parts of the world poor today, while others are rich? At which point in time did they diverge, and what were the reasons? These core questions are addressed in a concise and accessible introduction to global economic development since 1500. Leading economic historians from across the globe provide overviews of major world regions together with global comparison chapters and case studies highlighting key themes, individuals, processes and events. Utilising a set of common developmental indicators, the chapters address crucial issues such as how international trade and migration, institutions and flows of physical and human capital impacted economic growth. Richly illustrated with informative figures, maps, tables and charts, A History of the Global Economy summarises the key economic findings, debates and ideas, and provides students and the interested public with an up-to-date and engaging introduction to the origins and evolution of today's global economy.

Changes in the shape of the yield curve have traditionally been one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a likely change in economic outlook. However, the recent financial crises have created a challenge to the management of monetary policy, demanding a revision in the way that policymakers model expected changes in the economy. This volume brings together central bank economists and leading academic monetary economists to propose new methods for modelling the behaviour of interest rates. Topics covered include: the analysis and extraction of expectations of future monetary policy and inflation; the analysis of the short-term dynamics of money market interest rates; the reliability of existing models in periods of extreme market volatility and how to adjust them accordingly; and the role of government debt and deficits in affecting sovereign bond yields and spreads. This book will interest financial researchers and practitioners as well as academic and central bank economists.

This ground-breaking analysis of the astonishing development of the former Portuguese colony of Macao into the world’s leading gambling destination is based on a series of longitudinal indicators not

Ever since George Gallup developed his vision for public opinion in his book, The Pulse of Democracy, polls have become the dominant way of taking the temperature and feeling the "pulse of the nation

In the past, changes in behavior and in belief have been leading indicators for missionaries that Christian conversion had occurred. But these alone--or even together--are insufficient for a gospel u

This brief and accessible atlas uses colorful maps, graphs, and some of the best social science data available to survey the leading social, economic, and political indicators of American society. Map

In Understanding Crime Statistics, Lynch and Addington draw on the work of leading experts on U.S. crime statistics to provide much-needed research on appropriate use of this data. Specifically, the contributors explore the issues surrounding divergence in the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which have been the two major indicators of the level and of the change in level of crime in the United States for the past 30 years. This book examines recent changes in the UCR and the NCVS and assesses the effect these have had on divergence. By focusing on divergence, the authors encourage readers to think about how these data systems filter the reality of crime. Understanding Crime Statistics builds on this discussion of divergence to explain how the two data systems can be used as they were intended - in complementary rather than competitive ways.

In Understanding Crime Statistics, Lynch and Addington draw on the work of leading experts on U.S. crime statistics to provide much-needed research on appropriate use of this data. Specifically, the contributors explore the issues surrounding divergence in the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which have been the two major indicators of the level and of the change in level of crime in the United States for the past 30 years. This book examines recent changes in the UCR and the NCVS and assesses the effect these have had on divergence. By focusing on divergence, the authors encourage readers to think about how these data systems filter the reality of crime. Understanding Crime Statistics builds on this discussion of divergence to explain how the two data systems can be used as they were intended - in complementary rather than competitive ways.

This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the available techniques, particularly those used in business forecasting and econometric forecasting. The state of the art in time series modelling is reviewed and includes a discussion of Box-Jenkins models, the vector autogressive approach and cointegration. Ways of combining forecasts are also examined in detail. Part II considers the most important applications of forecasting. Applications in microeconomics include demand and sales forecasting, the use of anticipations data, leading indicators and scenario analysis. In macroeconomics the emphasis is on why errors occur in forecasting asset market prices, including implications of the efficient markets hypothesis for foreign markets, stock mark

This book provides a comprehensive and rigourous study of the development of the British economy from the early eighteenth century onwards. It surveys and synthesises the prevalent literature on the origins of the growth of the economy and its topical problems, and challenges the conventional view that sees an industrial revolution as the starting point of Britain's fresh economic growth. Statistical studies have to a large extent established the pattern of growth and of the leading economic indicators. The book makes full use of these studies and surveys the main macroeconomic aggregates: wealth and income; investment and the financial system; production and productivity; demographic and economic growth; foreign trade and payments; and regional growth. It looks at the interpretations of the data, the issues raised and examines the major debates.

GDP、失業率、通貨膨脹、貿易順逆差額…這些新聞版面經常出現的數字，時常成為我們判斷經濟是否景氣的指標，也是選舉時政治人物拿來說嘴或宣示的目標。但這些統計數字其實有著非常複雜、弔詭的面向。 例如：GDP（國內生產毛額）：災難過後的重建，屬於政府支出，會讓GDP上升，所以災難之後，GDP表現更好，代表人民生活更美好？ 失業率是怎麼計算來的？不主動找工作的人不列入「失業」計算裡，這些不主動找工作的人口