★ 教你在不確定世界中做出更好的選擇與判斷★ 從疫情、氣候到人生決策，一次看懂「風險」的真相★ 用最清楚易懂的方式，讓機率思維成為你的日常工具我們無法預測未來，但可以學會與不確定共存。在這個充滿風險與變數的世界裡，從健康、投資到全球危機，我們每天都在做選擇，卻往往忽略「不確定性」本身的存在。本書由英國最具影響力的統計學家帶領，透過真實案例與清晰解說，揭開機率與風險的運作方式。為什麼有些事情看似隨機，其實有跡可循？為什麼足球比賽有近四成取決於運氣？又為什麼兩副洗好的撲克牌幾乎不可能完全相同？作者用輕鬆幽默的筆法，帶你理解如何在資訊不完整的情況下更新判斷、做出更明智的決策。這不只是一本關於數據的書，而是一門關於「如何面對未知」的人生智慧。From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all
