Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fataldiscontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as apersistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars,and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and politicalshifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging,interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. Smil firstlooks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of globalimportance, including the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing economicand social inequality. He also considers environmental change--in some ways an amalgam of suddendiscontinuities and gradual change--and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of globalwarming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of eitherdoom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues that understanding change willhelp us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.
Vaclav Smil is Distinguished Professor at the University of Manitoba and the author of many books, including Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties (2005), Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems (2007), Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years (2008), and Why America Is Not a New Rome (2010), all published by the MIT Press. In 2010 he was named by Foreign Policy as one of the Top 100 Global Thinkers.
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