Models of Scenario Building and Planning ― Facing Uncertainty and Complexity

"Models of Scenario Building and Planning offers a unique and innovative exploration of the scenario approach. Importance is given to the analysis of the competitors' behaviour. If Models of Scenario Building Planning (MSBP) is there to serve strategy, it should consider with the utmost care the interaction between the concerned company and its competitors as well as its possible consequences. For example, when we talk about the company environment, we should never forget that it is not made just by impersonal economic or social forces, but also, if not foremost, by specific human actors, the competing companies. This book also focuses on the analysis of risk and uncertainty in MSBP (avoiding, however, any excess in technicalities). Risk can be defined as the probability of nonsuccess: MSBP should stress not only the advantages of a strategy based on the scenario which will eventually materialise, but also the losses incurred by betting on the wrong scenario(s). This is a point which has not received adequate attention in the literature on scenarios. The importance of the link between scenarios and strategies is also explored (i.e., how strategies can be worked out on the basis of the scenarios which have been built). "--