Success in a Low-return World ― Using Risk Management and Behavioral Finance to Achieve Market Outperformance

Following the Great Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 advanced more than 17 percent annualized from February 2009 through June 2018. At this pace, a buy-and-hold investor in the stock market would see their money double in 5 years and more than triple in 7 years. This performance has lulled many investors into thinking that such above-average returns will be with us into perpetuity. Unfortunately, this may not be the case. Far more likely, the return an investor may receive from the stock market will be slightly better than half the long-term average, about 5% to 7%.

Most investment portfolios hold a greater allocation to stocks than any other class of investment asset. Massive amounts of wealth were created from the bull market since early 2009 providing institutions and individuals with a rising tide that lifted their portfolios above their goals without much effort. The environment of the future stands to be far less accommodating, so finding suitable investments (other than U.S. stocks) that can achieve the necessary returns (or make up the shortfall) will be a critical component of achieving goals in years to come. This book will explore those solutions.

Michael J. Oyster, CFA, CAIA is an investment strategist, researcher and creator of the Options Income Index. He began his professional investment career in 1994 with options advisory firm Schaeffer’s Investment Research. As Schaeffer’s senior quantitative analyst, he conducted detailed analysis of options and volatility metrics while managing product offerings including an S&P 500 Index options spread strategy.

Upon joining Fund Evaluation Group, LLC (FEG) in 1999, Michael began researching traditional, hedge fund and options-based investment strategies as well as conducting and publishing independent research. As FEG’s Chief Investment Strategist, he served as a thought leader and frequent presenter on markets and the economy. His first book, Mission Possible, was published in 2005, and he was twice commissioned by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) to conduct research on and provide summary analysis regarding suites of their proprietary options indexes. He serves as a board member on the Freestore Foodbank Foundation and on the Lincoln W. Pavey Educational Foundation.