Probabilistic-Statistical Methods for Risk Assessment in Civil Aviation

Preface.

Chapter 1. Concept of risk and safety. Analysis of aviation safety regulations

1.1. Flight safety in the context of national safety policy.

1.2. Comparative estimation of flight safety situation in the Russian Federation and in the world.

1.2.1. Comparison of flight safety level in the Russian Federation and in the USA.

1.2.2. Comparison of flight safety situation in the Russian Federation and in the member states of the ICAO.

1.3. Analysis of national and international regulations requirements to the flight operations safety management systems.

1.3.1 ICAO, IATA, and EASA standards and recommended practices.

1.3.2. Standards, regulations, and guidances of several states.

1.4. Description of the current situation in the national flight safety program and in the flight operations safety management system of the Russian Federation.

1.5.Safety risk and its acceptable level.

1.5.1. Analysis of different approaches to risk definition.

1.5.2. Application of fuzzy sets and "soft estimation".

1.5.3. Concept of acceptable risk.

Chapter 2. Analysis of navigational and meteorological risks that impact civil aviation flight safety.

2.1. Classification of emergency, critical, and failure situations in aviation enterprise.

2.2. Analysis of possible unauthorised actions on the navigation system of civil aviation aircraft.

2.2.1. Classification of possible radio electronic attacks on the navigation system of civil aviation aircraft.

2.2.2. Possibility of intentional interference for the purpose of the total or fragmentary destruction of navigation information.

2.2.3. Energy analysis of intentional interference possibility in GPS and GLONASS.

2.2.4. System vulnerability analysis for navigation systems of civil aviation aircraft.

2.3. Analysis of meteorological risks in aviation enterprise operation.

2.3.1. Air temperature.

2.3.2. Air humidity.

2.3.3. Atmosphere pressure.

2.3.4. Wind.

2.3.5. Windshifts.

2.3.6. Air turbulence.

2.3.7. Clouded sky and limited visibility.

2.3.8. Weather minimums.

2.3.9. Visibility range.

2.3.10. Aircraft icing.

2.3.11. Glazed frost and ice-covered ground.

2.3.12. Thunderstorms, squals, whirlwind, rain showers, hail.

Chapter 3. Risk assessment methods for aviation enterprise

3.1. Flight safety risk management in aviation enterprise as a task of situational management.

3.2. Studyof the known risk assessment methods applicability to aviation industry.

3.2.1. Classification of general risk assessment methods. Applicability analysis for qualitative and combined methods.

3.2.2. Applicability analysis for quantitative risk assessment methods .

3.2.3. Limitations of ICAO recommended conceptual risk assesment model.

3.2.4.Review of triple-component models for