"A masterful survey of the financial sector and its post-COVID dependence on easy money from the Federal Reserve. This book is the first place to turn for a clear exposition of key financial topics--housing, municipal debt, pension funds, student loans, cryptocurrencies, and more. The reader will be surprised yet again at the extent of financial problems lurking below the surface."--Thomas H. Stanton, Johns Hopkins University "
Surprised Again! is a highly sophisticated analysis of every major potential problem in the US financial system today, presented in a delightfully readable and accessible form . . . The lesson is clear: surprises can never be ruled out, but it is possible to understand where the most likely economic or financial dangers lurk. The authors lay these out with admirable clarity. Forewarned is forearmed."--Peter J. Wallison, Senior Fellow Emeritus, American Enterprise Institute
About every ten years, we are surprised by a financial crisis. In 2020, we were
Surprised Again! by the financial panic of the spring triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Not one of the more than two dozen official systemic risk studies diligently developed in 2019 had even hinted at this financial crisis as a possibility, or at the frightening economic contraction which resulted from the political responses to control the virus. In response came the unprecedented government fiscal and monetary expansions and bailouts. Later 2020 brought a second big surprise: the appearance of an amazing boom in asset prices, including stocks, houses and cryptocurrencies.
Alex Pollock and Howard Adler lived through this historic instability while managing analytical support offices for the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Committee. Their book lays out the many elements of the panic, the massive elastic currency operations which rode to the rescue, financing the bust with unprecedented government debt, the second surprise of the boom in asset prices, including a renewed apparent bubble in house prices financed by government guarantees, as well as considering key leveraged sectors such as commercial real estate, student loans, pension funds, banks, and the government itself. It reflects philosophically on how to understand these events in retrospect and prospect.
