Waters Without Borders

In response to demographic forces, climate change, globalization, shifting societal values and norms, low rates of adoption of technological innovation, inadequate domestic and international laws, and market forces, pressures on water resources have increased to levels unprecedented in human history. Unanswered, the trend will accelerate in the future.Despite earlier perceptions that water scarcity most often leads to conflict, many recent studies conclude that cooperation is actually a more prevalent outcome in situations where two or more countries share water resources. Either way, future trends should not be overly predicated on past outcomes given that the anticipated scale of the impending water crisis exponentially outstrips scarcity conditions experienced to date. This paper explores possible future outcomes of interaction over shared international water resources based on two driving forces: governance and technology. Strengthened national and international governance can overcome geopolitical tendencies that would otherwise discourage cooperation. High levels of technological innovation, transfer, and adoption that increase water-use efficiency or available supply reduce immediate pressures and buy time for enduring cooperative mechanisms for governing shared water resources to develop. While universal cooperation over shared water resources is the obvious ultimate goal, the most immediate concern for the US is to prevent armed conflicts and widespread social upheaval in regions with overlapping US national interests. An understanding of what creates shared water resource "flashpoints" and the conditions that favor conflagration into larger regional conflicts is a valuable policy planning tool.

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