Migrant Midwest: The Case for Immigration and Economic Growth in the American Heartland

Over the last several years, there has been a surge in immigration at the US-Mexico border. The issue of immigration is, once again, thrust into the political spotlight, where it has been predictably polarized. Many Americans now see the rise of irregular immigration as an "invasion," a threat to the nation's security and culture. Others see the "huddled masses" at our southern border as victims of conflict, political repression, climate change, and economic deprivation. Our politicians feed on both fear and compassion to win voters while rarely, if ever, acknowledging the demographic context or economic necessity of migration today.

Here in the US heartland, local politicians echo the national discourse while mostly failing to recognize or articulate the tremendous potential of immigrants to contribute to local economies. What is missing from the national and local discourse is an understanding that the United States, especially the Midwest, has entered an unprecedented period of population stagnation and, in many places, outright population decline. Indeed, from 2010 to 2020, over half of counties in the United States lost population, with an even higher percentage of loss in the Midwest. As the first half of this book illustrates, foreign and domestic immigration and high fertility rates have historically driven the region's population growth and economy, but that era is over. The Midwest now has the lowest share of foreign-born residents, and domestic outmigration to the West and Sunbelt, especially the latter, continues apace. Meanwhile, the nation's fertility rate has plummeted to levels never seen before in this country. The Midwest is the country's slowest-growing region - it actually lost population in the two years following the COVID-19 pandemic. Demographic winter is setting in.