★一本讀懂新貿易戰時代的關鍵指南:從關稅、補貼到晶片管制與稀土戰略。
★兩位頂尖貿易專家聯手書寫,兼具經濟深度、國際視野與輕快幽默。
★推薦給關心中美競爭、全球供應鏈、AI產業、國際經濟與政策制定的讀者。
過去,全球貿易像背景音一樣存在。每年數兆美元的商品與服務跨境流動,供應鏈精準銜接,規則彷彿自然運作,沒有人需要特別擔心。然而那個時代已經結束。
如今,貿易不只是經濟活動,更是國家競爭的前線。美國關稅政策可能讓市場瞬間震盪、企業成本攀升,也可能改變盟友之間的信任;中國的稀土出口限制,足以牽動西方汽車與高科技製造;先進晶片能不能出口,更與AI主導權密切相關。當世界不再相信同一套遊戲規則,國家該如何自保?企業又該如何判斷風險?
《How to Win a Trade War》由《金融時報》經濟專欄作家 Soumaya Keynes 與彼得森國際經濟研究所資深研究員 Chad P. Bown 合著。兩位作者長期追蹤貿易政策與全球經濟競爭,並分別主持深受歡迎的經濟與貿易Podcast。他們以清楚易懂、帶有機智幽默的筆法,回顧貿易制度的歷史,解析各國如何使用關稅、補貼、戰略庫存、出口限制等工具,也追問一個更深層的問題:貿易戰會不會升高為真正的戰爭?西方又能從中國的產業策略中學到什麼?
這是一本關於「如何贏」的書,但作者提醒我們,在貿易戰裡,勝利往往不是讓對方全盤崩潰,而是避免自己受傷更重。當經濟武器也會反噬自身,懂得計算代價,才是新時代最重要的能力。
An irreverent and invaluable guide to our new era of economic competition, written by Financial Times columnist and podcaster Soumaya Keynes and Chad P. Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
We used to take trade for granted. Trillions of dollars of goods and services crossed borders each year, made possible by a global, rules-based system. Nobody paid too much attention to supply chains: they just worked.
Now we are in an era of trade conflict and can no longer avoid the fight. Trump's latest tariff announcement can jolt markets, push prices up, and sour decades-long alliances. China's export restrictions on rare earths could bring the West's car production to a halt. Curbs on trade in cutting-edge chips could determine who wins the AI race.
Keynes and Bown argue that the rules of the game have been abandoned, and a different strategy is needed. Yearning for the old approach to start working again isn't an option. Countries must adapt, which means learning from history, economics, and from each other—including China. The stakes couldn't be higher.
The authors explore the history, the players, and the rules of trade, and consider how we can prepare for what the future might hold. What would all-out economic warfare look like? Could trade wars lead to hot wars? What can the West learn from China?
Accessible and leavened with an appealing wit, this book explains how to win a trade war, where “winning” might mean minimizing the losses, and the weapons that we wield—subsidies, stockpiles, export restrictions and, of course, tariffs—have the potential to hurt us, too.
How to Win a Trade War is the guide to one of the global economy's biggest challenges.
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