Uncertainty

The US government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce uncertainty: to monitor and forecast everything from the weather to the spread of disease. In other words, we spend a lot of money to

Uncertainty theory is a branch of mathematics based on normality, monotonicity, self-duality, countable subadditivity, and product measure axioms. Uncertainty is any concept that satisfies the axioms

An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world.How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions

Uncertainty pervades the big decisions we all make in our lives. How much should we pay into our pensions each month? Should we take regular exercise? Expand the business? Change our strategy? Enter a

To seek, pursue, and fall in love with Jesus with radical abandon.Single Woman Mandy Hale shares with readers what can happen in their lives by praying this powerful prayer. She has shown women how im

When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that th

The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price sho

Mark Kraushaar's collection; winner of the Anthony Hecht Poetry Prize 2010.

Support for addressing the on-going global changes needs solutions for new scientific problems which in turn require new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of irreducible uncertai

Rational and reassuring, Uncertainty in Medicine forges a new path for approaching medical uncertainty by arming readers from an array of disciplines with the tools they need to diagnose, treat, and c

In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers var

The purpose of this book is to help readers understand the impact of uncertainty on learning processes. It is the first comprehensive book on the subject of learning with uncertainty and covers the ma

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2010, held in Toulouse, France, in September 2010. The 26 revised full papers

Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i

Like the De Groot winning first edition, the second edition of Principles of Uncertainty is an accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting st

In his first collection of short stories, rob mclennans The Uncertainty Principle uses not a single wasted word to explore history, contemporary culture, human relationships, and the ways in which we

Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Unc

At the core of both art and science we find the twin forces of probability and uncertainty. However, these two worlds have been tenuously entangled for decades. On the one hand, artists continue to as

A fair question to ask of an advocate of subjective Bayesianism (which the author is) is "how would you model uncertainty?" In this book, the author writes about how he has done it using rea

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.