Forecasting And Management Of Technology, Second Edition

Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for.

Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world.

ALAN THOMAS ROPER (retired) was a professor at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the past editor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal and the past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studies at Rose-Hulman.

SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM obtained a MSc in public policy from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science, technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. He is currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in the Department of Technology, Policy, and Management at Delft University of Technology.

ALAN L. PORTER has led development of "technology opportunity analysis" and mining electronic, bibliographic data sources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holds an MA in psychology and a PhD in engineering psychology, both from UCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development for Search Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia.

THOMAS W. MASON was the founding head of the Engineering Management Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/msem). While on a three-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and CEO of a 140-person network management systems business.

FREDERICK A. ROSSINI (retired) is a former provost at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

JERRY BANKS is Professor Emeritus, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia.

Chapter 1. Introduction.

1.1 About this Book.

1.2 Technology and Society.

1.3 Management and the Future.

1.4 Conclusions.

References.

Chapter 2. Technology Forecasting.

2.1 What is Technology Forecasting?

2.2 Methodological Foundations.

2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods.

2.4 Conclusion.

References.

Chapter 3. Managing the Forecasting Project.

3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project.

3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast.

3.3 Team Organization, Management and Communications.

3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time.

3.5 Project Scheduling.

3.6 Conclusions.

References.

Chapter 4. Exploring.

4.1 Establishing the Context – The TDS.

4.2 Monitoring.

4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity.

4.4 Conclusion.

References.

Chapter 5. Gathering and Using Information.

5.1 Expert Opinion.

5.3 Structuring The Search.

5.4 Preparing Search Results.

5.5 Using Search Results.

5.6 Developing Science, Technology and Social Indicators.

5.7 Communicating Search Results.

5.8 Conclusions.

References.

Chapter 6. Analyzing Phase.

6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods.

6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions.

6.3 Growth Models.

6.4 Simulation.

6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation.

6.6 System Dynamics.

6.7 Gaming.

6.8 Software Suggestions.

References.

Chapter 7. Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis.

7.1 Uncertainty.

7.2 Scenarios.

7.3 Examples and Applications.

7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques.

7.5 Conclusions.

References.

Chapter 8. Economic and Market Analysis.

8.1 The Context.

8.2 Forecasting the Market.

8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context.

8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context.

8.5 Conclusion.

References.

Chapter 9. Impact Assessment.

9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting.

9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology.

9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment.

9.4 Impact Identification.

9.5 Impact Analysis.

9.6 Impact Evaluation.

9.7 Conclusion.

References.

Chapter 10. Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis.

10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices.

10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis.

10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty.

10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase.

References.

Chapter 11. Implementing the Technology.

11.1 Forecasting Continues.

11.2 Implementation Issues.

11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation.

11.4 Selecting From Alternative Implementations of the Technology.

11.5 Technology Roadmapping.

11.6 When Plans and Forecasts Fail.

11.7 Summary and Concluding Observations.

References.

Chapter 12. Managing the Present From the Future.

12.1 The Overall Approach.

12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques.

12.3 Alternative perspectives.

12.4 Learning From Past Forecasts and Assessments.

12.5 Visions.

12.6 A Final Word.

References.

Chapter 13. Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells.

13.1 Framing the Case Study.

13.2 Methods.

13.3 The Rest of the Story.

References.