Risk Management Methods in the Aviation Enterprise

Chapter 1. Methods of flight safety risk management

1.1. Methods based on the model of aviation "event tree" development

1.1.1. Main provisions. Methodology of event type list forming

1.1.2. "Tree" formation and principles of basic probabilities evaluation

1.1.2.1. Methodology of "tree" design

1.1.2.2. Methods for evaluation of emergency factors basic probabilities

1.1.3. Basic probabilities evaluation for the group "Environment"

1.1.3.1. Structure of group accountable factors

1.1.3.2. Basic probabilities evaluation for the natural environment factors

1.1.3.3. Methodology for the runway performances treatment

1.1.3.4. Methodology for aerodrome infrastructure drawbacks treatment

1.1.4. Method of a posteriori probabilities adjustment

1.1.4.1. Formulation of the problem. Implementation of fuzzy estimations for a priori event probability distribution forming

1.1.4.2. Forming of a posteriori event probability distribution

1.1.5. Implementation of the method in automated system of forecasting and prevention of aviation accidents

1.2. Method of flight safety risk management using conditional factors and fuzzy evaluations

1.2.1. Formulation of the problem and approach to the solution. Content and structure of the source data

1.2.2. Severity factor and method of its calculation

1.2.3. Admissibility factor and method of its calculation

1.2.3.1. Rationale for fuzzy evaluation applicability

1.2.3.2. Composition of membership functions and the system of fuzzy logic conclusion

1.2.4. Implementation of the method in automated risk management system

1.3. Method of flight safety risk management based on the three-cocmponent model

1.3.1 Formulation of the problem. Algorithm of divergence and event risk index evaluation

1.3.2. Algorithm of emergency risk evaluation

Chapter 2. Aircraft overrun risk reducing methods

2.1. Description of aircraft runway movement after landing

2.2. Analysis of the problem of information supply on runway surface conditions

2.3. Methods of the crew situational raise awareness about runway conditions

2.3.1. Institutional arrangements and improvement of interpretation methods for descriptive information

2.3.2. Experimental detection of correlation dependence between Canadian and Russian runway friction indices.

2.4. Overrun risk management method based on statistical modeling.

2.4.1. Development of mathematical model for aircraft runway movement and its implementation in the program "Overrun Probability"

2.4.2. Joint application of the program "Overrun Probability" and multidimensional statistical methods of data analysis

2.4.2.1. Research objectives. Primary data processing

2.4.2.2. Principle component analysis method for comprehensive analysis of landing data

2.5. Overrun prognostication

2.5.1. Modification of "Overrun Probability"program mathematical model for prognostication task

2.5.2. Overrun prognosticating algorithm development for aborted take-off

Chapter 3. Practices to combat external impact on the aircraft navigation systems in civil aviation and flight regulatory management

3.1.