The Computer Science of Human Decisions

遠比賽局理論更強大、更全面的分析與決策思維！甫一上市，便直取亞馬遜書店「電腦科學類」暢銷榜Top 1強勢擠下《快思慢想》，榮登「認知科學類」暢銷榜Top 1出版十餘年，取得六千多則評價、平均「四星半」高分，長踞亞馬遜「商務決策與問題解決類」暢銷榜Top 50！「第一屆台灣人工智慧年會」暨「第四屆台灣資料科學年會」紀念贈書《麻省理工學院技術評論》年度最佳書籍／亞馬遜書店年度最佳科學書籍＊＊＊＊＊＊為什麼電腦科學家說，賽局理論「奈許均衡」的地位言過其實，榮膺諾貝爾經濟學獎的「現代投資組合理論」也不是好主意？這本書訪問近五十年來最知名演算法的設計者，顛覆你對於「合理」的看法！說到演算法，你想到的是政府和大企業如何利用數學模型算計你？其實，演算法的本質是「解決問題的一連串步驟」，它長期為各領域帶來洞見與重大變革，還能幫助個人跳脫盲點與錯誤直覺。說到電腦，你認為它冰冷且毫無彈性，思考方式跟人腦南轅北轍？事實上，我們面臨的許多挑戰，源頭跟電腦科學家的困擾一樣，因此電腦解決問題的方式，能在極大程度上與人們的作法融合。本書訪問近五十年來最知名演算法的設計者，了解他們如何教電腦發揮最大效用，自己又從中學得什麼生活智慧，書中各章以日常問題開場，釐清它們的演算結構後，探討研究者找出什麼解決方案，以及這些方法對學術、產業及個人生活帶來什麼幫助，像是：►證明「所有雙人賽局至少有一個均衡狀態」的奈許均衡，讓約翰．奈許拿下了諾貝爾經濟學獎，但它的地位可能言過其實。為什麼？（賽局理論）►自動駕駛汽車能改善交通阻塞，打造交通天堂？你可能要失望了。現在自私駕駛人各行其是的情形其實已接近最佳狀態。（賽局理論，自主行為代價）►棉花糖實驗證明了意志力對日後的成就有深遠影響？事情沒這麼簡單。抵擋得住誘惑的關鍵可能是「期望」……（貝氏法則）►以現代投資組合理論榮獲諾貝爾經濟學獎的馬可維茲，居然把自己的退休金平均投資在債券和股票上！這未免太不聰明了？未必。（過度擬合）►2010年5月6日，美國股市發生閃電崩盤，短短幾分鐘內有幾家公司股價飆漲、另幾家則直線崩跌，這是怎麼回事？（賽局理論，資訊瀑布）►你打算在十八歲到四十歲期間覓得人生伴侶，那麼幾歲時選定的對象可能最好？（最佳停止點，37％法則）►紙本資料用完隨手往旁邊疊，既沒條理又沒效率？不，根據演算法原理，這是目前已知最精良、效率最佳的資料結構。（快取）►什麼情況

探討如何將電腦科學中的演算法原理應用到日常生活與人類決策中。作者結合心理學、認知科學與計算機科學，說明演算法不僅是電腦解題的工具，更是我們在面對生活難題時可借鑑的思考模型。本書涵蓋多種實用議題，透過演算法的視角來處理生活中的決策與權衡，例如：➤最佳停下時機（Optimal Stopping）：如何判斷在眾多選項中何時停止尋找並做出決定，如招聘或約會。➤探索與利用的平衡（Explore-Exploit Trade-off）：何時探索新機會，何時利用已知資源。➤排序與組織：提升查找效率的策略。➤快取管理：如何在有限記憶空間中有效保留重要資訊。➤工作排程與切換成本：如何管理多任務與優先順序。➤貝氏定理（Bayes's Rule）：結合先驗知識與新資訊做出推論。➤放寬問題限制：在無解或計算困難的情況下，尋求「夠好」的近似解。➤隨機性與資源管理：利用隨機策略在不確定環境下取得良好結果。➤網絡與遊戲理論：理解互動系統與多方利益的決策動態。書中強調，雖然演算法能為複雜問題提供指導，但現實生活中決策仍存在不確定性和失敗風險。重要的是採用合理的策略來面對時間與資源限制，並學習在不完美中作出最佳抉擇。該書還指出，人類在面對計算難題時，常能透過直覺和簡化模型達成驚人的表現。此書獲得廣泛好評，被譽為一本能讓人重新認識「演算法」不僅屬於科技領域，更是生活智慧的指導手冊。A fascinating exploration of how computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives. What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? Exploring how insights from computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, 'Algorithms To Live By' helps to solve common decision-making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mind. When should you switch between different tasks, and how many tas

A fascinating exploration of how computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision-making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mindAll our lives a

What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? How much messiness should we accept? What balance of the new and familiar is the most fulfilling? These may seem like uniquely human quandar

A fascinating exploration of how computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision-making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mindAll our lives a

In our day-to-day lives we constantly make decisions which are simply 'good enough' rather than optimal. Most computer-based decision-making algorithms, on the other hand, doggedly seek only the optimal solution based on rigid criteria and reject any others. In this book, Professor Stirling outlines an alternative approach, using novel algorithms and techniques which can be used to find satisficing solutions. Building on traditional decision and game theory, these techniques allow decision-making systems to cope with more subtle situations where self and group interests conflict, perfect solutions can't be found and human issues need to be taken into account - in short, more closely modelling the way humans make decisions. The book will therefore be of great interest to engineers, computer scientists and mathematicians working on artificial intelligence and expert systems.

In our day-to-day lives we constantly make decisions which are simply 'good enough' rather than optimal. Most computer-based decision-making algorithms, on the other hand, doggedly seek only the optimal solution based on rigid criteria and reject any others. In this book, Professor Stirling outlines an alternative approach, using novel algorithms and techniques which can be used to find satisficing solutions. Building on traditional decision and game theory, these techniques allow decision-making systems to cope with more subtle situations where self and group interests conflict, perfect solutions can't be found and human issues need to be taken into account - in short, more closely modelling the way humans make decisions. The book will therefore be of great interest to engineers, computer scientists and mathematicians working on artificial intelligence and expert systems.

Personal motivation. The dream of creating artificial devices that reach or outperform human inteUigence is an old one. It is also one of the dreams of my youth, which have never left me. What makes t