Python Data Science Handbook

The definitive guide to statistical thinkingStatistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basi

'This marvellous book will transform your relationship with the numbers that swirl all around us' TIM HARFORD, author of The Undercover EconomistStatistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data.Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. How many trees are there on the planet? Do busier hospitals have higher survival rates? Why

在資訊爆炸的時代，懂統計就是一種看穿世界的能力。本書以生活化案例帶你理解數據如何被解讀與誤解，幫助你建立清晰判斷力。從醫療、新聞到社會議題，都是一場關於「如何不被數字欺騙」的思考訓練。The "important and comprehensive" (New Yorker) guide to statistical thinkingThe age of big data has made statistical literacy more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter shows how to apply statistical reasoning to real-world problems. Whether we're analyzing preventative medical screening or the terrible crime sprees of serial killers, Spiegelhalter teaches us how to clarify questions, assumptions, and expectations and, most importantly, how to interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to the power of data. "A call to arms for greater societal data literacy . . . a reminder that there are passionate, self-aware statisticians who can argue eloquently that their discipline is needed now more than ever." -- Financial Times

★ 教你在不確定世界中做出更好的選擇與判斷★ 從疫情、氣候到人生決策，一次看懂「風險」的真相★ 用最清楚易懂的方式，讓機率思維成為你的日常工具我們無法預測未來，但可以學會與不確定共存。在這個充滿風險與變數的世界裡，從健康、投資到全球危機，我們每天都在做選擇，卻往往忽略「不確定性」本身的存在。本書由英國最具影響力的統計學家帶領，透過真實案例與清晰解說，揭開機率與風險的運作方式。為什麼有些事情看似隨機，其實有跡可循？為什麼足球比賽有近四成取決於運氣？又為什麼兩副洗好的撲克牌幾乎不可能完全相同？作者用輕鬆幽默的筆法，帶你理解如何在資訊不完整的情況下更新判斷、做出更明智的決策。這不只是一本關於數據的書，而是一門關於「如何面對未知」的人生智慧。From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all

How dangerous is our diet? How much in sports comes down to luck? When authorities pronounce that a given event is "highly likely"--well, how likely is that, really? Our lives are riddled with risk and uncertainty, and renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career crunching data to decode the seemingly random events that define our experiences, as well as the numerous decisions we each make in the face of imperfect knowledge. In The Art of Uncertainty, he illuminates how all of us can do this better. Revealing the principles of probability--a field that informs everything from annuities to pandemics and climate change--he shows how we can measure our confidence, better evaluate cause and effect, and update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Drawing on fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty in a world that makes it inevitable.

Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the med