★ 教你在不確定世界中做出更好的選擇與判斷
★ 從疫情、氣候到人生決策，一次看懂「風險」的真相
★ 用最清楚易懂的方式，讓機率思維成為你的日常工具
我們無法預測未來，但可以學會與不確定共存。
在這個充滿風險與變數的世界裡，從健康、投資到全球危機，我們每天都在做選擇，卻往往忽略「不確定性」本身的存在。本書由英國最具影響力的統計學家帶領，透過真實案例與清晰解說，揭開機率與風險的運作方式。
為什麼有些事情看似隨機，其實有跡可循？為什麼足球比賽有近四成取決於運氣？又為什麼兩副洗好的撲克牌幾乎不可能完全相同？作者用輕鬆幽默的筆法，帶你理解如何在資訊不完整的情況下更新判斷、做出更明智的決策。
這不只是一本關於數據的書，而是一門關於「如何面對未知」的人生智慧。
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know
外文書商品之書封，為出版社提供之樣本。實際出貨商品，以出版社所提供之現有版本為主。部份書籍，因出版社供應狀況特殊，匯率將依實際狀況做調整。
無庫存之商品，在您完成訂單程序之後，將以空運的方式為你下單調貨。為了縮短等待的時間，建議您將外文書與其他商品分開下單，以獲得最快的取貨速度，平均調貨時間為1~2個月。
為了保護您的權益，「三民網路書店」提供會員七日商品鑑賞期(收到商品為起始日)。
若要辦理退貨，請在商品鑑賞期內寄回，且商品必須是全新狀態與完整包裝(商品、附件、發票、隨貨贈品等)否則恕不接受退貨。
