Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling ― A Guide for Estimators and Other Number Jugglers

Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling (Volume 1) sets the scene of TRACEability and good estimate practice that is followed in the other volumes in this series of five working guides. It clarifies the difference between an Estimating Process, Procedure, Approach, Method and Technique. It expands on these definitions of Approach (Top-down, Bottom-up and ‘Ethereal’) and Method (Analogy, Parametric and ‘Trusted Source’) and discusses how these form the basis of all other means of establishing an estimate.

This volume also underlines the importance of "data normalisation" in any estimating procedure, and demonstrates that the Estimating by Analogy Method, in essence, is a simple extension of Data Nomalisation. The author looks at simple measures of assessing the maturity or health of an estimate, and offers a means of assessing a spreadsheet for any inherent risks or errors that may be introduced by failing to follow good practice in spreadsheet design and build.

This book provides a taster of the more numerical techniques covered in the remainder of the series by considering how an Estimator can potentially exploit Benford’s Law (traditionally used in Fraud Detection) to identify systematic bias from third party contributors. It will be a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

Alan Jones is Principal Consultant at Estimata Limited, an estimating consultancy service. He is a certified cost estimator/Analyst (US) and certified cost engineer (UK). Prior to setting up his own business he has enjoyed a 40 year career in the UK aerospace and defence industry as an Estimator; culminating in the role of Chief Estimator at BAE Systems. Alan has been a Challenge Panel Member at the Society of Cost Analysis and Forecasting (SCAF) and is Director and Accreditation Board Chairman at the Association of Cost Engineers.