Includes
- Introduction to Decision Making
- Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets
- Group Mechanics
- Heuristics and Programmed Decisions
- Probability and Base Rate Neglect
Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to make those tough decisions they face by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make.
The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including:
- Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory
- Heuristics
- Probability and Expected Value
- Bayes Theorem
- Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods
- Game Theory
- Prediction Markets
- Brainstorming and Groupthink
- Black Swan Events.
Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.
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