Climate Change and Resource Conflict ─ The Role of Scarcity

This book links climate change and resource scarcity to violent conflict. 

It argues that economic, political and social conditions can explain whether conflicts break out in situations of resource scarcity and present an analysis of these conditions including pathways for conflict and violence. The public debate around "climate wars" suggests a causal link between changes in climate and conflict. Due to the many influences of climate change, this question covers a variety of aspects, such as the impact of extreme weather effects (e.g. floods or typhoons), of rising sea levels or of changes in temperature and precipitation. This book focuses on one link between climate change and conflict: scarcity of livelihood resources such as arable land and water. While there are strong theoretical arguments linking resource scarcity and conflict, the empirical evidence on this link is mixed with some case studies supporting the link but most quantitative studies finding no or only weak correlations. I assume that that whether conflicts break out in resource-scarce countries depends on the specific combinations of social, political and economic conditions in these countries. The main aim of this book is to establish under which conditions armed conflict occurs in countries experiencing resource scarcity. To answer this question, the author systematically compares social, economic and political conditions across 30 cases. This shows that there are specific types of countries (least developed countries, neo-patrimonal countries and oil-rich countries that are not well integrated into the global economy) where conflicts erupt in situations of resource scarcity and types of countries (those that are not dependent on agriculture with either equal levels of development or high adaptive capacities and high integration into the global economy) that remain peaceful. In contrast to existing studies, this book systematically analyses the role of economic, political and social conditions, and employs qualitative comparative analysis. In addition, it also uses an unusual sample size of 30 cases, including both conflict and non-conflict cases. Throughout the book, mini case studies are used as illustrative examples.

This book will be of much interest to students of climate change, critical security, peace and conflict studies, and IR in general.

Judith Bretthaer is a project manager at the Sanddorf Stiftung, Munich, Germany, and has a PhD from the VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands.