Fooled by Randomness

The landmark five-book investigation of uncertainty, chance, volatility, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand--now in a beautifully designed, cloth-bound hardcover boxed set.Nassim

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nono

Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, reno

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the

Finally in paperback, here is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. This book is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our pe

Kent Osband, Founder of RiskTick LLC, a consultancy tracking financial turbulence philosophizes that like the atmosphere or the seas, financial markets sometimes get so stirred up that it seems like a

The interplay between computability and randomness has been an active area of research in recent years, reflected by ample funding in the USA, numerous workshops, and publications on the subject. The

From the author of Zero, comes this "admirable salvo against quantitative bamboozlement by the media and the government" (The Boston Globe) In Zero, Charles Seife presented readers with a thrilling

This review volume consists of an indispensable set of chapters written by leading scholars, scientists and researchers in the field of Randomness, including related subfields specially but not limite

The interplay between computability and randomness has been an active area of research in recent years, reflected by ample funding in the USA, numerous workshops, and publications on the subject. The

Wise up with this fun-filled, activity-packed, eye-opening kid's guide to neuroscience and psychology.Discover the variety of ways our brains can trick us, from optical illusions to magicians' masterf

This book is concerned with the theory of computability and complexity over the real numbers. This theory was initiated by Turing, Grzegorczyk, Lacombe, Banach and Mazur and has seen rapid growth in

This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license.This book addresses the physical phenomenon of events that seem to occur spontaneously and without any known cause. These are to be contrasted with e

Everything you need to know about the cultural contexts of 'Volpone'. The unremitting exposure of human vileness is black and bleak, redeemed perhaps by the eventual punishment of the wrongdoers in an

With the born storyteller's command of narrative and imaginative approach, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how our lives are profoundly informed by chance and randomness and how everything fr

Based on lectures given by one of the authors with many years of experience in teaching stochastic processes, this textbook is unique in combining basic mathematical and physical theory with numerous

Named a Best Book of 2018 by the Financial Times and Fortune, this "thrilling" (Bill Gates) New York Times bestseller exposes how a "modern Gatsby" swindled over $5 billion with the aid of Goldman Sac

Named a Best Book of 2018 by theFinancial TimesandFortune, this "thrilling" (Bill Gates)New York Timesbestseller exposes how a "modern Gatsby" swindled over $5 billion with the aid of Goldman Sachs in

《財星》（Fortune）雜誌選為「有史以來最聰明的書」（Smartest Books of All Time）《金融時報》年度最佳商業書 《黑天鵝效應》作者塔雷伯成名之作《隨機騙局》（更新二版） 在機率的觀念下，賺大錢的人可能只是運氣好的傻瓜，而賠錢卻也只是運氣不好罷了。現實生活中的成功與失敗，運氣其實常常被低估。這本書要談的就是運氣，更準確地說，在個人生活或是職場生涯裡，我們對運氣懷有什麼樣的

Nonlinearity, Complexity and Randomness in Economics presents a variety of papers by leading economists, scientists, and philosophers who focus on different aspects of nonlinearity, complexity and ran

This text demonstrates the roles of statistical methods, coordinate transformations, and mathematical analysis in mapping complex, unpredictable dynamical systems. Written by a well-known authority in

What marks out a real princess? Why, the ability not to be fooled by fine trappings and the seeming comforts of a lush looking bed. A gorgeous and funny retelling of a timeless tale, with free online audio.

Belle Gibson convinced the world she had healed herself of terminal brain cancer by eating a healthy diet. She built a global business based on her story. There was just one problem: she never had can

在 Mac and Mac 的世界裡，什麼問題都能被荒唐的想法解決。兩兄弟腦袋空空，常被朋友耍得團團轉，連派都吃不到完整的一份。為了逃避鋪床，他們竟異想天開跑去睡在床下；為了爭一口派，又鬧出一堆笑話。全書採用漫畫風敘事，文字幽默、插圖誇張，讓孩子們讀來哈哈大笑。這種結合打鬧與民間故事元素的創作，也讓讀者在娛樂之餘，重新看見民間故事的創意詮釋。Mac and Mac, who love pie and hate making their beds, are hollow-headed. "See in here? Nothing! Zippo! Nada!" Mac explains. That’s why they get duped by their friend Meatball and fooled out of their fair shares of apple pie. Slapstick humor, puns and wacky fun abound as the empty-headed duo comes up with outlandish solutions for everyday problems, such as sleeping under their beds to avoid ever having to make them again. Written in a comic-book style, this book will have young readers rolling on the floor, and educators rethinking their approaches to folklore.

Exploring themes that preoccupied Albert Camus--absurdity, silence, revolt, fidelity, and moderation--Robert Zaretsky portrays a moralist who refused to be fooled by the nobler names we assign to ou

Wagner has been fooled by just about everyone this April Fools' Day--his best friend Pearl, his teacher, and even the librarian. Tired of being on the receiving end of all the pranks, Wagner is determ

If we as Americans want better political leaders, this book argues, than we must become better followers. The way we do that is by becoming more savvy, tough, and questioning and understanding the tri

世界上存在這樣一種人：他們純憑運氣便取得了令人豔羨的巨大成就，塔勒布稱這類人為“幸運的傻瓜”，因為他們總是煞有介事地把自己的成功歸諸某種特定原因。塔勒布指出，我們習慣於低估隨機性的力量，實際上很多成功接近是運氣的安排，而盲目相信某樣東西能帶來成功的人則是不理解隨機性的可憐人，他們相信經濟學、統計學等等，但從未想過也許自己所利用的工具只是恰好符合當時市場的特性而已，他們深受隨機性的愚弄：比別人更快、更有信心地墜入陷阱之中。人們總喜歡根據過去的歷史來推斷未來的走向，這種推測往往非常不可靠，其原因在於我們所處的世界充滿黑天鵝事件以及非對稱現象，這種推斷實際上受兩種因素影響至深：隨機性的影響程度以及最初的樣本數量。塔勒布以商業領域為例：在這個受隨機性影響巨大的領域中，從業人員越多，其中某人純靠運氣便能大獲成功的概率也就越高。塔勒布在這本書中討論的是明明是靠運氣，但卻被認為是靠非運氣因素(技術等)完成的事情，以及這種無知帶來的巨大危害，他認為許多人的成功只是因為其身上的傻瓜特質剛好符合某一階段的歷史趨勢，正是這種幸運使得長期而言必將失敗的人在短期內獲得了巨大的成功。塔勒布非常坦誠地說明，人們應當承認自己在隨機性面前的脆弱無力，並提前做好坦然面對黑天鵝事件的準備，因為命運女神專享不能控制的是你的行為。

The monograph compares two approaches that describe the statistical stability phenomenon – one proposed by the probability theory that ignores violations of statistical stability and another proposed

Prep It, Smoke It, Savor It-A Start-to-Finish Meat Smoking Guide There is no tried-and-true formula to smoke mouthwatering barbecue, which is part of the fun and part of the challenge. Don't be fooled

Friendship comes first in this hilarious Halloween story about the iconic mouse and bear duo from There's a Bear on My Chair. It's Halloween - woo-hoo! - and Bear is determined to scare Mouse. Mouse, however, isn't fooled by Bear's clumsy attempts to dress up .. . Bear's ghostly wail is just plain silly and his werewolf smells of wet dog.But wait! Who's knocking at the door now? This mysterious monster might just scare them both!Watch out, it's Fright Night! Will YOU be fooled by Bear's spooky costumes?Can't get enough? Look out for more Mouse and Bear shenanigans from Ross Collins: There's a Bear on My ChairThere's a Mouse in My HouseWe Disagree About This TreePraise for There's a Bear on My Chair (now a spectacular stage show!):"This stylish, Dr. Seussian, laugh-together picture book delights in simple, scanning rhyme, funny lines, a surprise ending and Collins's sure, comical draughtmanship" - The Sunday TimesWinner of The Amnesty CILIP Honour 2016Shortlisted for The Kate Greenaway

This Signet Classics edition of Agatha Christie's The Murder of Roger Ackroyd includes an exclusive Introduction by Ruth Ware. In the small English village of King's Abbot, a widow's suicide has stirred up dreadful rumors of blackmail and deception. Most shocking of all is the subsequent murder of her lover Roger Ackroyd, stabbed to death in his own study by an unknown assailant. There are suspects and motives aplenty, and rumors that his neighbor, the recently retired detective Hercule Poirot, doesn't have a clue who did the dastardly deed.... Setting up the traditional rules of mystery only to shatter them, Christie delivers her most famously shocking detective novel. As Dorothy L. Sayers said, "Christie fooled you [all]..."